This issue of the Vanguard Occasional Paper Series is the first in a 2 part series on Energy Security. 

The publication, Siloed Systems, Shared Stakes: Keeping the Nation’s Engine from Stalling, by William Nichols was released in October 2026.

Drawing on national policy, legislative frameworks, strategic reviews, and industry analysis, Nichols examines Australia’s dependence on imported liquid fuels and the vulnerabilities this creates for national security, economic stability, and societal resilience. 

The central argument of the study notes: Despite repeated recognition of fuel security risks, decades of efficiency-focused policy settings have reduced domestic refining capacity and strategic reserves, leaving critical sectors vulnerable to supply disruption.

Through a comparative assessment of Finland and Japan, Nichols demonstrates how fuel resilience can be strengthened when it is treated as a sovereign capability embedded within broader national preparedness systems. He further argues that the development of a sovereign low-carbon liquid fuels industry offers a practical pathway to enhance fuel security while supporting decarbonisation objectives.

Accordingly, the paper calls for a coherent national fuel strategy that restores resilience, strengthens sovereign capability, and improves Australia’s preparedness for future crises.

Author

William Nichols is a senior Australian public servant with almost 2 decades of experience across Australian Government portfolios, including national security, infrastructure, energy and strategic policy.

William has extensive experience in fuel security and resilience. This includes leading national fuel vulnerability assessments, developing Defence fuel resilience requirements and the Defence Future Energy Strategy, contributing to the Clean Energy Acceleration Plan, and establishing the National Fuel Council. 

He has worked closely with Defence, industry stakeholders, and government agencies to strengthen fuel security, resilience, and national preparedness across Australia.