Russia's security influence in Northeast Asia

This paper analyses Russia's security influence in Northeast Asia. It notes that while Russia's security influence in the region declined considerably in the post‐Cold War era, its membership of the UN Security Council still provides it with considerable influence and opportunity to frustrate the perceived 'liberal‐democratic' agenda of the West, not only in the current, vexed issues of Eastern Europe and the Middle East but also in Northeast Asia.

The paper examines the reasons why Russia does not have greater influence, and assesses Russia's recent attempts to re‐engage in Northeast Asia. It outlines the implications for regional security of its prospective re‐emergence, assessing that the key factor in determining whether Russia plays a stabilising or competitive role in Northeast Asia will be whether Russia decides that its security goals in its Far East are more important than its economic goals. It concludes that if its longer‐term engagement favours geostrategic competition over regional economic cooperation, as recently evidenced in Ukraine, Russia has the potential to further complicate an already complex regional security environment in Northeast Asia.

This paper was also published in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Digest series.

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