The ally of my ally is my… friend? The security implications for Northeast Asia over the next 10 years of the relationship between Japan and South Korea

This paper examines the relationship between South Korea and Japan. It asserts that while there should be strong grounds for a close bilateral relationship, there are underlying tensions as a result of historical legacies, their longstanding territorial dispute, and continuing uncertainties posed by the regime in North Korea and the re‐emergence of China. It argues that the relationship is important both because of how it affects the management of current security challenges in Northeast Asia, including in relation to the role of the US, and also because of the potential implications of any changes to the relationship.

The paper contends that any deterioration in the Japan‐South Korea relationship would likely unsettle regional security, which is good reason for the two to seek to resolve their outstanding issues. However, it also notes that any improvement in their relationship may not necessarily be seen by China in a positive light, which in turn could impact the regional security environment. It concludes that the current and occasionally tense relationship between Japan and South Korea may actually be a more stabilising factor than it first appears and, paradoxically, may be a not unreasonable dynamic in terms of the security of Northeast Asia.

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