Australia has entered an era defined by the accelerating pace, scale and complexity of technological change. For Defence, this creates both opportunity and risk.

Defence Science and Technology Group’s (DSTG) Chief Human and Decision Sciences, Nigel McGinty, said Defence must remain informed and agile “in order to be prepared for strategic surprise – to leverage disruptive innovations, maintain a strategic edge, improve operational effectiveness and safeguard national security”. 

Helping Defence understand that future, before it arrives, is the purpose of the Strategic Science and Technology Outlook 2025 (S+T Outlook) – DSTG’s biennial technological foresight product. 

The Outlook provides a high-level assessment of emerging technologies and their potential threats, opportunities and impacts over the next five to 20 years, supporting Defence leaders to make informed, coordinated decisions in an increasingly uncertain strategic environment.

“Today’s global technological landscape is increasingly complex and interconnected,” Dr McGinty said. 

“Breakthroughs and technological advances can quickly disrupt existing structures and concepts, impacting both social and military systems. Whether that disruption becomes a threat or an opportunity depends on Australia’s ability to detect change, anticipate shifts, explore the impacts and formulate a robust strategic response.”

The fourth edition of the S+T Outlook is a key deliverable under the Defence Innovation, Science and Technology (IS&T) Strategy’s Line of Effort 1: ‘Anticipating the Future’.

'Placing technologies into real-world Defence contexts helps us ask the right questions.'

At its core, the Outlook is built on a rigorous, evidence-based foresight process. Drawing on Defence’s extensive science and technology knowledge, data analysis and military expertise, the Outlook identifies emerging technologies through horizon scanning, explores how technologies may converge into future use cases, and assesses their potential impacts in a military context – looking as far ahead as 2045.

“The Outlook steps through a methodical, evidence-based process of technology horizon scanning, convergences into use cases and assessments of potential impacts,” Dr McGinty said. 

“It takes into account key Defence strategies and initiatives to support informed, coordinated decision-making.”

That process is not linear. Dr McGinty said technology foresight was a journey that began with curiosity and progressed from discovery through assessment to communication. 

To make that journey robust, analysts deliberately balance two complementary paths.

“One path starts from the bottom up, with the technology itself – identifying which technologies are emerging, how they could evolve and where it might lead. The other works from the top down, starting with Defence capability needs and working backwards to see what technologies could meet those needs,” Dr McGinty said. 

“By weaving these approaches together, we build a clearer, stronger understanding of the future.”

To do this, DSTG analysts integrate a wide range of information sources alongside strategic and policy documents. These insights are strengthened through interviews and surveys with subject-matter experts from across government, industry, academia and the broader science and technology ecosystem.

'Today’s global technological landscape is increasingly complex and interconnected.'

As the journey continues, experts and stakeholders are brought together to explore emerging technologies through a shared future scenario. By placing technologies into real-world Defence contexts, the team can test assumptions, explore risks and opportunities, and identify gaps in knowledge.

“Placing technologies into real-world Defence contexts helps us ask the right questions,” Dr McGinty said. 

“How might this technology change the way we operate? Where does it align with current strategic guidance? What new risks, or opportunities, does it create?”

The result is a strategic guide designed not only to mitigate technological surprise, but also to create it by identifying opportunities to build asymmetric advantage. 

Timelines and readiness projections offer insight into plausible futures, while recognising that transforming technologies into operational Defence capabilities requires deeper analysis of workforce skills, policy settings, infrastructure and Defence-specific needs.

“The Outlook is about more than technologies,” Dr McGinty said. 

“It’s about the talent, creativity and drive of our Defence workforce, our partners across government, industry and academia, and our international allies. Together, we are a community with purpose – accelerating asymmetric advantage and delivering more, together.”

That same theme, ‘Anticipating the Future’, will be explored further at the Australian Defence Science, Technology and Research Summit 2026, DSTG’s biennial conference, to be held in Adelaide from August 4 to 6. There, Defence, industry, research and international partners will come together to continue the conversation about how Australia can better forecast emerging threats and opportunities, and help to shape the future strategic environment.

Register and check out the latest program at the ADSTAR Summit website.