A nine-dash red line? The potential for major conflict in the South China Sea

This 2013 paper by Colonel Mick Lehmann analyses the potential for major conflict in the South China Sea (SCS) between the US and China in the coming decade, particularly given its description as 'a major flashpoint for potential conflict'. It examines the importance of the SCS, particularly to the claimant states, both in relation to its geostrategic location and the resources within and below it.

The paper concludes that the political, military and economic calculus is such that— in the absence of serious miscalculation—Australia's current National Security Statement is correct in its assessment that SCS‐related conflict between the US and China is unlikely for the foreseeable future.

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