Concepts are not idle fantasy

By WGCDR Callum Brown

JUST about every male knows about concept cars – the tangible product of car designers’ fantasies for future vehicles in the automotive market.

These concept cars are often created and then exhibited at car shows to gauge industry and public reaction in a competitive market place before the full-scale production decision is taken. Some concept cars make it to the showroom floor and others don’t.

Air Force concepts are operating concepts derived from an analysis of the future environment. Concepts are not just ideas – they are carefully considered and informed ideas. They are ideas that take into consideration the likely future operating environment for the Air Force, relevant technological developments, and capabilities of the equipment that are already in the acquisition pipeline.

Air Force concepts generally focus on a 20 to 25-year timeframe. Although it is unlikely that any concept will be universally acceptable, many concepts are purposefully developed as controversial ideas so as to stimulate discussion and generate greater synergy for the process.

A good concept needs to consider the practical lessons of the past and current reality in a judicious mix. It must also achieve the optimum balance between military art and science. Future technologies must be understood, as must the human dimension of combat. All good concepts have a statement of purpose, a time horizon, assumptions and risks, a statement of the military problem, and a central idea.

The Air Force is currently developing its Future Air Warfighting Concept. This will create discussion as well as an understanding of how the Air Force will operate in the future. The concept will also be used as input to the ADF’s Future Joint Operating Concept, which sits below the Future Warfighting Concept (ADDP-D.3) at the strategic level.

The Future Joint Operating Concept is being developed using a tri-service writing team coordinated through the Directorate of Future Warfighting in Strategic Policy Division. It is important that single-service concepts are compatible with joint and
tri-service concepts so as to ensure a seamless force in the future.

Concepts are important in Defence and Air Force because they also form a major input of the capability acquisition process.

Before a capability is purchased we need to know how it will be used to achieve military outcomes. Concepts are also important to Defence industry as they provide input to equipment development process so as to meet Defence needs.

Once a concept is developed it must be tested to see if it will work. This is the role of experimentation and will be the subject of a future Air Force News feature.

Wing Commander Callum Brown is Deputy Director Futures Analysis at the Air Power Development Centre.

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