FLTLT Boyd Falconer says we must anticipate threats to aviation safety in order to maintain a clean record.

Since 11 September, Australian aviation safety has embraced a new definition with respect to the threat of terror.

Hijacking? Sky Marshals? Clearly, Australian aviation is far from immune to the threat of terror. Yet let's not lose sight of the bigger threat.

The rebirth of Ansett and its subsequent demise, the expansion of Virgin Blue and the industrial tension within Qantas places Australian aviation in a period of significant, industry-wide upheaval.

A similar environment exists in military aviation, with the war on terror, East Timor operations and maritime surveillance operations.

In the current aviation climate, it is important to ensure our view includes aviation safety's more frequently successful enemy - human error.

At stake is Australia's coveted aviation safety record. Yet awaiting errors in order to process a 'data-base' for some arbitrary 'safety record' is reactive management at its worst.

Alternately, hoping that errors are infrequent or non-existent within Australian commercial or military aviation is simply naive. We must anticipate the threats to aviation safety.

Aviation safety research is the most effective way to anticipate and prevent aviation disasters. But what effort is being expended to maintain aviation safety? Who drives the effort?

You might think the Government enforces safety through the ADF, or CASA. But these entities are ultimately answerable to the people.

So while we may appoint responsibility to others, the influential human phenomenon of culture is the true source of our behavioural guidance.

Importantly, culture prescribes the manner in which we behave in contrast to the retrospective view provided by safety records.

Culture plays a vital role in forming attitudes and behaviours regarding aviation safety.

Examining the entire aviation system, rather than spotlighting individuals is more difficult, and less appetising to the finger-pointing public.

But cultural norms provide the most accurate prediction of human performance in complex systems like aviation.

A significant challenge for aviation safety is 'attitude versus behaviour' within the aviation system. Although people say they're safety conscious they often act differently. Disagree?

Consider the following:

Attitude: 'I'm concerned about safety when I fly'.

Behaviour: Buy the cheapest airline ticket available. Perhaps even change travelling dates or airlines to get a cheaper fare.

The question of how much a 'safe' ticket costs is related more to a notion of 'acceptable safety' than price competitiveness. More importantly, however, the notion that attitudes do not necessarily cause parallel behaviours suggests that the answers to many aviation safety problems lie deeper than pilot-centred 'fix-its'.

Research shows that early aviation training has a continuous impact on behaviour, despite the length of time passed since training took place.

The effect of 'importing' cultures is a particularly fertile research area for Australian airlines that employ significant numbers of former Defence Force and small commercial pilots.

Yet pilots are but a small population in the aviation system. We must learn to distinguish between incompetence and error. We must finally recognise error in aviation (or any other profession) as a normal consequence of being human.

Only errors made visible provide learning opportunities.

With aviation's recent turbulence set to continue, the threats to Australian aviation safety demands renewed levels of vigilance.

Let's be sure our infatuation with 'terror' doesn't cloud a more complete view. Unlike terror, human error requires no concealed weapon.

FLTLT Boyd Falconer is a PhD candidate and Spitfire Memorial Defence Fellow at the University of New South Wales. He is a qualified Air Force pilot and QFI. He holds a science degree in mathematics and an aviation degree in human factors.

His doctoral research examines the role of 'safety culture' upon high-risk activities within complex systems, including military aviation.

He can be contacted via email at:

http://www.aviation.unsw.edu.au/boyd.htm

By FLTLT Boyd Falconer