The need to leave the Army

There comes a time when we all have to hang up our uniform for the last time Photo by Cpl Cameron Jamieson, Army newspaper

Why can too low a separation rate be a bad thing?

Maj Phillip Hoglin, in charge of Officer Modelling for the Directorate of Workforce Modelling and Analysis – Army (DWM&A-A), has the answer.

“A good healthy force needs people to flow through the SNCO ranks. We need people to leave so the corporals have a position to be promoted to. If the separation rate is low, people are not going to be promoted and they’re either going to discharge as a result of not being promoted, or that rank group is going to get older [in age].

“Ideally we don’t want too many [older] people staying at a lower rank, we want them to move up the promotional pipeline. We don’t want the Army to grow longer just because our separation rate isn’t high enough,” he said.

The current healthy separation rates seem to mean that Army is recruiting the same numbers that are leaving and thus separation rates are not affecting the overall strength of the Army. After better than expected separation rates in financial year 02/03, rates have started to return to the levels seen at the start of the decade, with an overall separation rate of 11.5 per cent in financial year 03/04.

Although there are variations from one corps to another, overall OR separation rates have increased from 10 per cent previous year to 11.5 per cent, due mainly to an increase in the resignation rate of privates. JNCOs have experienced a small increase in separation, while SNCOs have stayed about the same and warrant officer separation rates have decreased slightly.

“Certainly on the OR side, if your separation rate for warrant officers becomes really low then there is little opportunity for Sergeants to be promoted and it follows all the way through,” Deputy Director DWM&A-A Lt-Col Tony Wallace said.

Officer separation rates are the lowest they have been in the past five years with separation rates falling from 9.3 per cent last year to 8.5 per cent in financial year 03/04, mainly due to an increase in the overall number of captains.

Officer separation rates have been decreasing since 2001, but this trend is not expected to continue into the next financial year.

According to Maj Hoglin, “there is a natural separation rate and we feel confidant that we are below it at the moment and we are anticipating an upswing, but not a big one, maybe half a per cent.”

Lt-Col Wallace said the last time there was this unusual pattern of OR rates increasing and officer rates decreasing was about ten years ago.

“Traditionally there have been maybe a two-to-four per cent difference between OR rates and officer rates, but over the last couple of years the rates actually got very close, so maybe the current trend is part of a correction between the rates,” he said.

“Eventually we know officer rates will have to rise, they can’t continue to fall indefinitely,” he said.

One thing on which the team at DWM&A-A is adamant – there is a misconception that separation rates are somehow related to the economy. They simply are not.

There is no evidence from any studies that separation rates are greatly influenced by the economy for the most part.

The idea that separation rates will go down if interest rates go up is wrong.

Likewise, to say that separation rates increase as unemployment rates decrease is also wrong. There is no relationship between separation rates and the economy.

DWM&A-A can help if you are interested in workforce planning and forecasts, or have a need for workforce information on your corps. Contact Maj Phillip Hoglin (02) 6265 4144 for officer details or Maj Jeremy Moore (02) 6265 6486 for OR details.

Information on OR and officer separation rates can also be found on the DWMA&A intranet site: http://defweb.cbr.defence.gov.au/dpedwpe/wp(army).htm