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How Safe Are Our Subs?
By CMDR Andy Miller
December 14, 1998
Amid
a spate of recent media reports denigrating the Navy's new generation,
locally built Collins Class submarines, readers should be under no illusions
- these submarines will be world beaters!
The men and women who will man the new submarines know that every time
they put to sea in their Collins Class boats, they can rely on the most
comprehensive submarine safety regime in existence.
It is therefore difficult to comprehend recent media reports quoting a
senior Federal Senator as saying "during early submarine trials, computer
problems had nearly caused a new, billion-dollar Collins Class submarine
to sink to the bottom of the sea, with the potential loss of all hands
onboard."
Remark Damaging and Incorrect
The remark was unfortunate in that it was damaging to the morale of
the men and women who will man the Collins Class and has the potential
to cause anxiety and distress to their families. Besides, it is quite
incorrect. No such incident has ever occurred in a Collins Class submarine
and it seems likely that the Senator was confusing the incident with such
an event which did occur on board a British Upholder Class submarine during
builders trials in the late 1980's. On that occasion, crew training recovered
the situation very quickly and the submarine was never in any real danger.
However, the incident does raise the question "how safe are our submarines"
and what confidence can the ships companies and their families have that
every reasonable precaution has been taken to prevent a serious accident?
The answer lies in the RAN Submarine Safety Program (SUBSAFE) that was
specifically developed within the New Submarine Project as part of the
process of bringing the Collins Class submarines into service. Development
of SUBSAFE began in 1989. Its aim is to "develop and implement a system
safety program sufficiently comprehensive to identify the hazards of a
submarine as a system, and to impose design requirements and management
control to prevent mishaps, by eliminating hazards or reducing the associated
risk to an acceptable level."
Reducing risk of accident
The Program is based on, and is a further development of, the US Department
of Defence's - "Systems Safety Program Requirements", to identify hazards
and track their resolution until an acceptable outcome is achieved. SUBSAFE
comprises eight elements as follows:
- Material Safety: Maintains the integrity of the SUBSAFE Certification
Boundary (the Boundary that keeps the water out of the submarine) to
permit the submarine to recover from a credible flooding hazard condition.
- Quality Systems: Details the minimum requirements for processes
and audits that must be carried out at all levels of submarine operation
and logistic support.
- Escape and Rescue: Ensures that the submarines conform to
the requirements of the RAN Submarine Escape and Rescue Policy.
- Combat Survivability: Addresses the submarine's design and
its ability to withstand underwater explosive shock and torpedo impact,
the use of redundancy to maintain services affected by damage and other
areas that might affect the ability to fight the submarine, such as
crew training, flooding, fire fighting and toxic gas management and
control.
- Weapons Systems Safety: Ensures the safe handling, stowage
and discharge of all weapons carried in the submarines.
- Inspection Test and Trials: Demonstrates compliance with the
specifications and the maintenance of SUBSAFE Certification.
- Human Engineering: Optimises the performance of operator and
maintenance personnel and ensures the health and safety of personnel
in the working environment with particular emphasis on the management
of hazardous materials.
- Software Safety: Ensures that individual system software which
contributes to system safety is appropriate to system employment and
that the integrity of that software has been demonstrated. Ongoing management
of the SUBSAFE Program Elements is vested in the SUBSAFE Board, directly
responsible to the Deputy Chief of Navy, through its three sub-groups,
respectively responsible for Material Safety, Escape and Rescue and
Operations Safety.
SUBSAFE, or indeed any safety program, can never guarantee that an accident
will never happen - but what it can and does do, through its structured
and systematic approach to all eight of its program elements, is to reduce
the risk of accident to acceptable proportions.
And what is an acceptable level for accident occurrence? Ideally we
would like to be 100% certain that an accident cannot occur - but that
is unrealistic and the cost of achievement would be absolutely astronomic.
For the US Apollo space program, NASA settled on a safety factor of 99.9%
for crew safety; that is; one chance in a thousand that a catastrophic
failure would result in loss of life, but as we all know, even at those
odds, fatal accidents can and did occur. What then if we sought a safety
factor of one in ten thousand? Or one in one hundred thousand? Would that
be sufficient?
For the Collins Class submarine, the SUBSAFE Program acceptable level
of risk for the loss of a submarine on any 70 day patrol is specified
as not to exceed one chance in one million! In percentage terms, that
is 99.9999%. This is the same safety criteria that applies to the chance
that any given commercial aircraft will suffer a catastrophic accident
on any given flight.
Even so, in the unlikely event that an accident does occur and provided
the submarine's hull remains intact, the RAN has in place, through its
"REMORA" manned submarine rescue vehicle, a state-of-the-art system capable
of rescuing personnel from a disabled submarine down to its crush depth,
even when it is lying at acute angles. This system, which remains at 24
hour readiness, is further supported as necessary by the full resources
of the US Navy's own comprehensive submarine rescue service.
History continues to remind us that accidents can and do occur in submarines
and some might say that it is simply due to the nature of the job and
the unforgiving environment in which they operate. However, SUBSAFE supported
by REMORA, applies established safety standards to the identification,
management and reduction of risk to acceptable levels to ensure that our
new generation of submarines are as safe as our current state of knowledge
and modern technology will allow.
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