Information

General

DSTO has been tasked by Government to provide specific advice for major acquisition projects concerning technological feasibility, maturity and overall technical risk associated with the project. This Annex addresses how the involvement of DSTO through all phases of the Capability Development process will facilitate the delivery of this advice.

In particular, the process and procedures for assessing technical risk should be based on the following fundamental principles:

• That it be consistent with Capability Development Cycle;
  
  
• It is based on universally recognised schema of technology readiness levels, which provide a convenient method of expressing basic information which contributes to the overall assessment of technical risk;
  
  
• It is based on principles espoused in AS/NZS 4360:1999 (e.g. the linking of likelihood and consequences and the definition of risk analysis given in that standard); and
  
  
• It will take account of systems issues (integration, implementation, etc.)
  
  

Entry into the DCP

DSTO has considerable analytical experience to be able to contribute to a number of activities and studies that may be undertaken to support entry of a project into the DCP. In the first instance assistance with the development of a framework could be provided that would facilitate a structured examination of the assumptions subject matter experts make in the identification process of capability gaps within the DCP. Further work may include strategy to task analysis comprising of force projection and force employment studies which would allow qualification and quantification of a capability gap. Participation in the capability analysis workshop activity to provide input to the Defence Capability Strategy could also be expected. Due to their collocation with the Capability Development Group it is anticipated that DSTO Defence Systems Analysis Division staff would lead such early analysis and coordinate the participation of other appropriate divisions.

First Pass

Following formal recognition of the existence of a capability gap, by its entry in the DCP, the next step is to identify options to address that gap. DSTO has expertise in many areas of military systems and related technologies, and will be able to bring this expertise to bear in suggesting options for consideration. In addition, DSTO can assist in the identification of these options by assisting in the formulation of questions to be asked of industry, and identifying related issues that might need to be addressed. DSTO can also assist in the review of information supplied by industry.

Once the list of options has been agreed and information assembled, DSTO will be in a position to bring together its Operations Research (OR) expertise and subject matter experts in many systems and technology areas to analyse the contribution of these options to addressing these gaps. It will normally be possible, for example, to quantify the contribution of various options, and thus identify options that provide a minimum acceptable level of capability. These studies would be carried out in conjunction with Service operational staff and Investment Analysis staff to ensure stakeholders' views are considered, and to ensure wide-ranging ownership of the results.

A technical risk assessment (TRA) should be presented for each option. Where appropriate, DSTO would take responsibility for the provision of a TRA for each option. At first pass this would focus on the feasibility of the technology proposed, and would be particularly important for effects-based projects where a broad initial option set is presented. DSTO would address the level of maturity of the technology and advise on its availability and overall effectiveness, given the timescales proposed for the introduction of this capability. The technology readiness level methodology would be used as a vehicle for expressing basic technology readiness information, and would contribute to the overall assessment of technical risk.

The information derived from the studies and assessments discussed above will contribute in various ways to the project documentation, including:

• The Capability Proposal First Pass will address the proposed capability in terms of high level requirements and desired effects. OR and specific operational performance advice will contribute to this discussion.
  
  
• The Capability Proposal First Pass will include a high level overview of the risk associated with the cost, schedule and technical aspects of the options. DSTO will assist in the assessment of technical risk, and will also assist in the integration of that information into the paper.
  
  
• Included in the Capability Proposal First Pass will be statements addressing the selection of the preferred option, and the funding required to further investigate that option. DSTO will be able to contribute to the development of these statements.
  
  
• Each Annex to the Capability Proposal First Pass will form an Initial Business Case (IBC) for a particular option, and will address the methodology to be used during Second Pass, including the undertaking of risk assessments and other studies. DSTO will be able to advise on the extent to which DSTO resources can be used, and on the need to engage industry expertise. The Annex will also address the technical risk assessment, and the implications of those results.
  
  
• The IBC will include estimates of acquisition and operating costs. DSTO could advise on any peculiar aspect of the option that might involve the adoption of particular operational or maintenance procedures in its operation, and hence affect costs.
  
  
• The IBC will address the potential contribution of Australian Industry and the possible need to provide follow-on support for the option. DSTO has intimate knowledge of most technologies used in the ADF, and will be able to advise on the engagement of industry and on the advice proffered.
  
  

Intermediate Decision Points

The results of DSTO studies, technical risk assessments, and other S&T advice will form an important input to the NSC's deliberations on reducing the range of options to a manageable set, if not to a single option, for detailed analysis.

Second Pass

Preparation for Second Pass will focus on rigorous assessment of the remaining available options agreed to by Government for further detailed consideration. For both specific capability and effects-based projects, this assessment will include the solicitation of information from industry, the development of specifications particularly those in crucial areas of operational performance, the development of tender documentation, the evaluation of tender responses, the identification and execution of risk reduction activities that might involve both DSTO and industry, and the preparation of statements of technical risk. DSTO may have specific data requirements for conduct of supporting studies for the Project or may request specific information be delivered by industry in order to better understand technical risk and develop risk mitigation strategies. Therefore DSTO should be involved in activities such as the development of tender documentation that facilitates access to such data.

The nature of the assessments of technical risk will be different from those developed for first pass. The focus will be on the maturity of the proposed technology and the operation of the system as an integral part of the ADF.

DSTO advice will contribute to project documentation in the following ways:

• The Capability Proposal Second Pass will address the proposed capability in terms of high level requirements and desired effects. This advice will be based in part on DSTO analysis.
  
  
• Annexes to the Capability Proposal Second Pass will form the Acquisition Business Cases for each option and will detail relevant operational performance and technical risk assessments. Also included will be proposals for risk mitigation that might involve DSTO either in undertaking particular research or in managing research undertaken by industry.
  
  
• Significant DSTO contributions can be expected for the Operational Concept Document, Functional Performance Statement, and Test and Evaluation Plan. A chapter will also be prepared for the Project Management Plan.
  
  

Formal Sign-off on Technical Risk Assessment

DSTO has a responsibility to review all technical risk assessments, whether they be generated within DSTO by industry or through a joint effort. Such a review is undertaken on behalf of the Chief Defence Scientist, who has responsibility for sign-off of all technical risk statements for all Projects at First and Second Pass. Where industry has conducted the TRA, DSTO would require at least 10 weeks to provide such certification for First Pass and approximately 16 weeks for Second Pass. Alternatively, the project may wish to consider involving DSTO in the undertaking of the TRA during development of the relevant documentation or have DSTO conduct the TRA outright. This would significantly shorten the certification process. Consultation with DSTO through the IPT member can identify a likely time frame once the OCD begins to take shape (Sections 1-4 for DCP Entry, or Section 5 for First or Second Pass).

How to Contact DSTO

Each project will have an appointed Project S&T Adviser. The Project S&T Adviser is responsible for providing coordinated advice and assistance to the project. The Adviser can be reached through the staff in the Studies Guidance Branch of DSTO in Russell Offices, or through one of the Service Scientific Advisers.