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Opertation Slipper - on patrol in Afghanistan

Opertation Slipper - deployment in the Gulf

While strategic competition between nations has not gone away, major power relations have generally become more stable. The combination of US military and economic might and converging national priorities in eliminating terrorism have increased the focus of the major powers on cooperating to advance shared interests. Russia and the United States have put their Cold War confrontation fully behind them with a new framework for cooperation, based on shared security interests and reductions in their strategic nuclear capabilities. Russia's acceptance of NATO enlargement, and its improved relationships with the EU and other Western treaty organisations, bode well for continued stability across much of the European continent.

Despite tensions early in 2001, US-China relations have stabilised. But strategic competition between the US and China will continue over the next decade, and the possibility of miscalculation over Taiwan persists. While China's economic rise will pose challenges for some countries over the next decade, notably Japan, the consequences for regional stability could be greater if growth stalled or there was social breakdown within China.

The potential for conventional military conflict remains in North Asia. Notwithstanding progress towards improved relations between North and South Korea over recent years, the Korean peninsula remains a potential flashpoint. Warning time of a conflict might be short, especially if North Korea's nuclear ambitions and brinkmanship keep tensions high. For the time being it seems likely that the issue will be managed through peaceful means.

Washington's strong international posture since September 2001 is evoking popular anti-Americanism, and not just in Muslim countries. So far, hostility is more a complication in US management of international relations than a major limitation on US primacy. Even if broad international support for the US declines, this will not prevent Washington pursuing a purposeful agenda against serious terrorist, WMD or other threats.

Australia and the US continue to share many values and interests, and we jointly benefit from, and contribute towards, global stability and prosperity. Australia's defence capability is enhanced through access to US information and technology. Our relationship with the United States remains a national asset. The United States' current political, economic, and military dominance adds further weight to the alliance relationship. The alliance increases Australia's ability to contribute effectively to coalition operations.

As a result of a combination of factors including greater stability in major power relations and increased US strategic dominance, the threat of direct military attack on Australia is less than it was in 2000. Paradoxically, however, in some other important ways, certainty and predictability have decreased because the strategic advantage offered by our geography does not protect Australia against rogue states armed with WMD and long-range ballistic missiles. Nor does it protect Australia from the scourge of terrorism. In some regions of high strategic significance to Australia, notably North Asia and the Middle East, it is still conceivable that conflict could occur, directly affecting Australia's interests.

Less strategic certainty means that our emphasis must be on having the flexibility and adaptability to answer the unexpected as much as the expected.